The Major Pairs In Review- USD Bears Beware
Euro:
The euro reached a fresh new 10-month low during the first part of the European session. From this level, and going forward, the downtrend is expected to continue with a first possible target in the 1.3000 area, but in the short-term, the pair looks deeply oversold, and needing of a relief bounce, long. On the daily chart, Eur/Usd is trading in a downward channel, while the momentum read is oversold.
Cable:
Cable found support in the 1.4850 area overnight, the same place where the pair bottomed over the last three weeks of trading. If the dollar index can continue to push higher, the Gbp/Usd will break lower without any hesitation, confirming the pair’s bearish outlook. Today, at 05:30 ET, the U.K. Retail Sales report sparked some volatility, as the actual numbers came in much better than the expected numbers.
Aussie:
The aussie dropped to test support at the 100-day moving average at 0.9065 during the prior U.S. session, but overnight trade helped it recover some ground. Right now, the Aud/Usd is trading caught between the 20 and the 100-day moving averages, limiting the pair’s intra-day moves. Additionally, the aussie is trading above an area that is packed with important swing points, so pushing below the 100-day moving average might prove challenging.
Cad:
Over the last few days of trading Usd/Cad has gained about 100 pips, and is the first period of trade since February that the pair has moved higher with any momentum. This uptrend was caused by weakness in the commodity market and overall Usd strength. However, once all this is over, the cad will probably head straight towards parity, in the 1.0000 area, as the regional economic comparisons in this particular pair come to the valuation fore.
Swissy:
The Usd/Chf is currently struggling to take out the 1.0700 area. A break above it changes the pairs outlook to long, from short. This would be a major breakthrough for the pair, and it will probably allow it to regain its correlation with the other major pairs, especially with the Eur/Usd. The 1.0900 area represents the next target to the upside.
Yen:
The yen managed to break above the 200-day moving average at 91.50 in recent trade for the first time since August 2009. This is a major achievement, which will allow the Usd/Jpy to continue its uptrend towards the 95.00 area. However, in intra-day trading, the Usd/Jpy is expected to re-test the prior resistance areas, that are now support, before moving on the next leg up.
Euro:
The euro reached a fresh new 10-month low during the first part of the European session. From this level, and going forward, the downtrend is expected to continue with a first possible target in the 1.3000 area, but in the short-term, the pair looks deeply oversold, and needing of a relief bounce, long. On the daily chart, Eur/Usd is trading in a downward channel, while the momentum read is oversold.