Forex Market Driver Update

The G20 and IMF meetings are now out of the way, without any negative headlines coming from either as the first week of trade gets underway.

The near-term view looks to be major currency buying, as traders move global equity markets into yearly highs and away from the Usd based safety of Treasury bonds. The forex moves in April have been very contained in regard to price ranges, but have been extremely volatile in intra-day movement.
An area of focus for the last week of April trade will be the red-flag calendar releases, which start in earnest from Wednesday. Until then, the momentum will follow the equity market direction, and if that holds higher, the Usd will struggle to easily move up.

Near-term stair-step/elevator trading patterns are reminiscent of the 2008/9 eye-of-the-storm reactions as the credit-crisis unfolded. Long, spiking candles that in 30 minutes reversed, and/or covered, an entire day's trade were the norm, and all done on low volume, and low average trading ranges. It leads to reduced lot trading, and banking early.

The 4-hour chart outlooks reveal a swing change in near-term sentiment on the major pairs, and if the dark clouds that have surrounded every Greek headline this month abate, the euro may lead the major pairs in holding support, and as equities move up those support areas may become much harder to break than has been seen recently.

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