Possible Swing Point On The 5am 4-Hour Candles

The Asian and European markets have held the flat line in overnight trade, and that has allowed support on crude oil to hold at $73, and also negated further long moves from the dollar index. The German Dax is the first equity market to start to signal on the 4 hour charts a possible near-term swing point at 6150 that could reverse the selling if it holds.

S/P futures did well to stave off sellers under 1115, and now are battling bids at 1135. If both of those equity markets, and crude trade, can hold those price points, the major currencies will regain some lost Usd ground.

Usd/Cad may be the first of the major pairs to signal, with a 4 hour chart set-up that can close under 1.0275 potentially setting off a test of 1.0115. Gbp/Usd will be next, with a break above 1.4550 that also holds on a 4 hour basis. Usd/Jpy is signaling that 92.50 could turn into a swing point low area, but like cad and cable, yen will need to confirm the 4 hour close at 05:00 ET.

The U.K. has a busy economic calendar on Tuesday, and that sets off a run of red-flag economic releases that will very likely impact forex trade this week. The dollar index needs some relief from the overbought conditions, and a positive equity session on Tuesday may just allow that to happen.

The need to hedge the long-Usd environment has allowed gold trade to surge higher and stake a claim to be a stand-alone asset class that seems to have few peers when global expansion is in doubt. The GLD/USD correlation is holding strong as both Usd and Bullion reserves are seen as a near-term safe haven.

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